Raising the minimum wage in America continues to be a hotly debated policy issue. Although the federal minimum wage has not changed since 2009, many states have raised their minimum wages in recent years. 

At the same time, worsening economic and social conditions may be contributing to the rise of self-inflicted “deaths of despair.” Alarming rises in suicide and overdose rates represent an urgent public health crisis, and researchers are seeking to measure the health effects of social and economic policies. 

In a new national study, LDI Senior Fellow David Powell and colleagues assessed the effects of minimum-wage increases on overdose, poisoning, and suicide deaths from 2010 to 2019. They found, at most, modest effects on deaths of despair, providing novel evidence for the policy debate. Wage hikes are unlikely to serve as a stand-alone strategy to reduce overdoses or suicides, although they may have other important economic or social effects. 

Powell discusses the study and its findings below.

What motivated you to do this research on minimum wage and ‘deaths of despair’?

Powell: We were motivated by two trends happening at the same time: rising concern about “deaths of despair,” especially suicides and drug overdoses, and a wave of unusually large state minimum-wage increases. Prior studies suggested that labor-market policy might affect suicide or overdose mortality, but most of that evidence came from earlier periods with smaller minimum-wage changes. We wanted to know whether the much larger minimum-wage increases adopted after the Great Recession had measurable public health effects.  There is a lot of interest in understanding whether social and economic policies can succeed where most policies specifically targeting these outcomes have struggled to make meaningful progress.

What are you most excited about with this piece of minimum wage research?

Powell: We are most excited that the study connects a major economic policy debate to urgent public health outcomes. Minimum-wage policy is usually evaluated in terms of wages, employment, and poverty, but its broader effects on well-being matter too, and public health measures may better reflect overall well-being than the economic measures that are traditionally studied. This paper brings new evidence to that question using recent policy changes and national mortality data. Unfortunately, we find little evidence that minimum-wage policy can impact these public health outcomes.  However, it’s valuable to know what doesn’t work too, and we were able to reject that minimum-wage increases can even modestly reduce overdose or suicide rates.

What is your most important finding and why? How does this work break new ground?

Powell: Our most important finding is that recent minimum-wage increases appear to have had, at most, modest effects on poisoning deaths, overdoses, opioid-related overdose deaths, and suicides. The estimated effects were small and statistically uncertain, suggesting that minimum-wage increases are unlikely to substantially reduce these deaths on their own. The study breaks new ground by focusing on the large post-2010 state minimum-wage hikes, which were much generally bigger than the increases studied in the earlier literature.

How does this research fit into the existing literature on minimum wage hikes?

Powell: This work builds on two literatures: one on the economic and health effects of minimum-wage policy, and another on the economic roots of deaths of despair. Some previous studies found that higher minimum wages were associated with lower suicide rates, while the evidence on drug poisoning and overdose mortality was more limited. Our study adds more recent evidence and suggests that findings from earlier, smaller minimum-wage increases may not necessarily generalize to the larger policy changes of the 2010s.

How did you choose this study design?

Powell: Some states raised their minimum wage during this period while others did not, setting up a nice policy-driven experiment. This allowed us to compare states that adopted minimum-wage increases with states that did not. We used groups that were less exposed to minimum-wage policy as an additional comparison group, which helped us account for state-specific factors that might have changed around the same time as minimum-wage adoption.

What limitations or weaknesses in this study should readers be aware of?

Powell: This is still an observational study. There may be other factors that coincided with minimum-wage increases and affected suicide or overdose deaths disproportionately among groups more exposed to the minimum wage, and we cannot fully rule out that possibility. So while our design helps address many concerns, readers should interpret the findings with that limitation in mind.

What are the policy implications or recommendations?

Powell: The main implication is that raising the minimum wage should not be viewed as a stand-alone strategy for reducing overdose or suicide mortality. Minimum-wage policy may still have important economic or social effects, but our results suggest that, at the magnitudes observed from 2010 to 2019, it is unlikely to produce large reductions in deaths of despair. Policymakers concerned about overdose and suicide mortality will likely need more targeted public health and social-policy interventions.

Where are you going next with the research?

Powell: A natural next step is to understand which economic policies, if any, are more effective at improving health and reducing mortality among economically vulnerable groups. More broadly, this research points toward a need to evaluate economic policy not only through wages and employment, but also through population health and well-being.

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The study, “Recent Minimum Wage Policies and Their Association With Suicide and Poisoning Deaths” was published in the American Journal of Epidemiology in May 2026 by Yuji Mizushima, David Powell, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, and Margaret Weden.

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